Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
